Dividend Aristocrat and Other Watch Lists

Identifying Stocks to be Included

A to do list is meaningless without inserting a due date. The due date provides a call to action, and without it the list is often tackled by what one wants to do, rather than what one needs to do. Similarly a watch list is meaningless unless there is a call to action.

The purpose of a watch list is to identify stocks that are believed to be good investments. the list could be organized by sector, by size, by source or some other criteria.

The workbook "Dividend Aristocrats and Other Watch lists" is organized by source. The source being the influencer or Guru that triggered interest in the stock. The source could be a broker, newsletter, an internet site, TV program or any other source that suggested the position. One such source on our watch list is a listing of all stocks identified as Dividend Aristocrats.

Often there is a time lapse between the time of updating the watch list and investing in that name, and not all entries result in a purchase.

The watch list must also include a call to action. A entry point and an exit point should be identified. These are the prices that flag a possible disposition or purchase.

Collecting Data

The tools available to the retail investor cannot be complex, the data must be easily understood and at hand. Corporate Earning per Share (EPS), and Price Earnings Ratios (PE) meet these conditions.

The EPS is computed by dividing the corporations earnings by it shares outstanding. While the PE is simply the market value of a share divided by the EPS. Both numbers are published on a corporation's Google and Yahoo Finance webpages, as well as a host of other sites. They are not difficult to understand nor to obtain.

Knowing when to buy and when to sell, however, is predicting the future share price of a particular stock. Using this data means ascertaining future earnings, and then applying a PE that the market will apply to those earnings. Estimates of future earnings are published by a number of organizations, as are historic PE ratios. Most brokers provide the Thomson Reuters reports on their research webpages. Again estimates of future earnings and historic PE ratios are readily available, but will the market behave in the future as it has in the past, and how good is the estimate of a stock's future earnings.

It is outside the ability of the amateur retail investor to estimate future earnings, but the published Thompson Reuters reports show the professional analyst's high, medium and low. For the purposes of the watch list accept the average.

The Thomson Reuters reports also chart the PE ratio for the past five years, and compares the corporation's PE to the the sector it operates in. Again the amateur retail investor can based on this published data select a PE ratio they are comfortable with.

Make a note of the current dividend the stock pays. Yahoo, Google finance or your broker's research page on a particular stock will show the current dividend.

The second component of future market price is the stock's trading range. What is its support price, and where is it meeting resistance to moving higher. The internet provides many services that chart stocks, and the support price and resistance prices are readily available

Building a Watch List

Save a copy of the Dividend Aristocrat and Other Watch Lists and open it to the tab (watch List) on which a new stock symbol will be added
Copy the bottom line on that tab in the Dividend Aristocrat and other watch lists and paste it as a new bottom line
Overwrite the stocks symbol on the new bottom line with the new stock symbol.
Enter the data obtained from the above analysis

Dividend
The target price suggested by professional analyst
Low PE
Hi PE
Estimated future EPS
Stocks support price
Stocks Resistance price

The Spreadsheet will compute possible entry and exit targets. These can be over ridden with the user's subjective values.

Comparison between the Basic and Advanced Spreadsheets

The Advanced Investment Tracking Spreadsheet imports all the Ticker data from the Dividend Aristocrat and Other Watch Lists, while the Basic downloads the data directly from the internet on to its Ticker Tab. The following table sets out the differences between the two, and discusses the challenges associated with estimating future events and assessing historic data.

Basic	Advanced	Commentary
	Date Assessed.	On the Advanced watch list each individual stock is assessed, while on the basic all data is downloaded. There is no need to note the date assessed, while on the advanced there is.
TGT	Fair Value.	The Basic downloads the 1 Year target price from Yahoo finance, while the Advanced computes the Fair Value based on the Low PE and the High PE - there is no additional entry here but the Low PE and the high PE must be entered for the fair value to be computed. A five year chart of FDX's PE ratio shows a high of 22 and a low of 10, which points to a mean of 16. Professional analyst suggest that the mean EPS for 2022 will be $22.09. Using the mean PE of 16, this suggests a value of $353.44, well above the stocks resistance of $260. This analysis points out the challenges of assessing the historic PE ratios.
52 Week low and high	Current trading range	The Basic downloads the 52 week Low and high, while the Dashboard requires the user to review the stock’s chart and enter the current trading range. What is the current support price and at what price will the stock meet resistance.
Current PE	Low/High PE.	The Basic downloads the current PE Ratio, while the Advanced requires the user to review the stock’s historical PE ratios together with the industry’s norms then enter what the user feels to be appropriate for that name, at that time.
EPS	Projected EPS	The Basic downloads the current Earnings Per Share (EPS) while the Advances requires the user to review analyst’s reports to ascertain what the various brokers and analysts expect the EPS to be.
	Guru	The Guru being the person, TV program, broker or Internet site that triggered the user’s interest in a particular stock. The user can access a stock on the Guru’s spreadsheet. 10 such worksheets have been included in the workbook. There is no additional entry here, but it is where the data is recorded.
	Entry Point	The Entry Point is computed as being the Low PE times the projected EPS. the user can override this computation based on their review to the stock charts and or other information.
	Exit Point EPS	he Exit Point is computed as being the High PE times the projected EPS. the user can override this computation based on their review to the stock charts and or other information.
	Analyst's Target	The Advanced requires the user to enter the Analyst’s target price. It is a benchmark to which the user can measure their own assessment of value.

When to Buy - When to Sell

Although much of the information accumulated on the various spreadsheets included in the Aristocrat Dividend and Other Watch Lists is subjective it must be put to use. Other wise what is the purpose? All data on each spreadsheet is brought forward to the Ticker Tab. Each spreadsheet has a counter as to the number of names entered. That number is carried forward to the ticker tab and is used to ensure that all data is carried forward and that the ticker tab is complete.

The estimated yield as computed on each spreadsheet, and carried forward to the ticker tab is used to assess each stock. A positive yield is noted with a "B" while a yield greater than 30% is flagged with a "SB". These names are carried forward to the BUY Tab which presents the "SB" names first, followed by the "B" names.

Detailed instructions on the use of this workbook is set on on it's instruction tab.
To view the workbook click on the link

Dividend Aristocrats and Other Watch Lists

To make a copy click on the following link

Dividend Aristocrats and other Watch Lists